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MONDAY 26TH JULY 2010 Ranges NZD/USD: .7028/7288 AUD/USD: .8634/8968 NZD/AUD: .8105/8188 Last week First off, last week Kiwi tested the lower end of the band and held in nicely, even though the bounce back hasn’t been that fierce, the market has been trading in a very lack lustre mood. The USD sell off over the week looked like it was out of boredom more than anything, as the market awaited the stress test of the European banking system. It was released after the European close on Friday night, and came out with little useful data. Most commentators are stating that the test was far too narrow and inconclusive to draw any major conclusions from. However 7 banks did fail. This has seen the Euro lower on the open this morning but nothing to write home about.
This week All eyes here on the RBNZ OCR out on Thursday. With a 25 point rate hike almost guaranteed to push the cash rate up to 3 percent. However, with the world undergoing a much slower and more wobbly recovery the accompanying statement will be dovish. Also the local data has been on the slightly soft side, so look for the grey man to mention a slow domestic economic recovery. Earlier in the week we have the Aussie CPI which should out shin the CPI here at home, this will see the NZD/AUD sink below 80 cents. Globally its steady as she goes, as we await the for the next round of news to push the markets in the next direction, for my money I think we are going to see a dip this week in the Euro and a slight rally in the US. The week ahead Monday 26-Jul UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) - JUL Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) - JUL JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total - JUN AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) - 2Q Producer Price Index (YoY) - 2Q
Tuesday 27-Jul US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index - JUN New Home Sales - JUN New Home Sales MoM - JUN Dallas Fed Manf. Activity - JUL AU Conference Board Leading Index - MAY GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - AUG Import Price Index (YoY) - JUN EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) - JUN
Wednesday 28-Jul US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind - MAY S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA - MAY S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY - MAY Richmond Fed Manufact. Index - JUL Consumer Confidence - JUL AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) - 2Q RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) - 2Q Consumer Prices (YoY) - 2Q RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) - 2Q RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) - 2Q RBA Weighted Median (YoY) - 2Q NZ NBNZ Business Confidence - JUL NBNZ Activity Outlook - JUL EC ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey - APR
THursday 29-Jul US Durable Goods Orders - JUN Durables Ex Transportation - JUN GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) - JUL P CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) - JUL P CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) - JUL P US Fed's Beige Book - JUL NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate - JUL Trade Balance - JUN Imports - JUN Exports - JUN NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD - JUN JN Retail Trade MoM SA - JUN AU HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - JUN NZ Money Supply M3 YoY - JUN UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) - JUL Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) - JUL GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) - JUL UK Net Consumer Credit - JUN Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings - JUN Mortgage Approvals - JUN M4 Money Supply (MoM) - JUN F M4 Money Supply (YoY) - JUN F EC Business Climate Indicator - JUL Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence - JUL Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence - JUL F Euro-Zone Economic Confidence - JUL Euro-zone Services Confidence - JUL NZ AON 1-Year Inflation Expect - JUL
Friday 30-Jul US Initial Jobless Claims - 24 JUL Continuing Claims - 17 JUL NZ Building Permits MoM - JUN UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey - JUL JN Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI - JUL Jobless Rate - JUN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) - JUN Natl CPI YoY - JUN Industrial Production YOY% - JUN P Industrial Production (MoM) - JUN P Loans & Discounts Corp YoY - JUN AU Private Sector Credit MoM% - JUN Private Sector Credit YoY% - JUN CH MNI Business Condition Survey - JUL JN Vehicle Production (YoY) - JUN Housing Starts (YoY) - JUN Construction Orders (YoY) - JUN GE Retail Sales (MoM) - JUN Retail Sales (YoY) - JUN EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - JUN Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) - JUL
Saturday 31-Jul US GDP QoQ (Annualized) - 2Q A Personal Consumption - 2Q A GDP Price Index - 2Q A Core PCE QoQ - 2Q A Employment Cost Index - 2Q Chicago Purchasing Manager - JUL U. of Michigan Confidence - JUL F NAPM-Milwaukee - JUL CH PMI Manufacturing - JUL
Key: AU: Australia, EC: Euro-zone, GE: Germany, JN: Japan |
