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MONDAY 12TH JULY 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: .6833/7109 AUD/USD: .8332/8776 NZD/AUD: .8071/8210 Last week The market got a kick in the pants last week, as continued government stimulus boosted all the risk currencies higher. Kiwi rose on the back of the AUD as it soared away, even with the milk auction looking decidedly weak, there was no stopping the shift in global sentiment. The asset markets rallied nicely and they all finished on, or at near their highs. What we did Traded the range over the week This week With the medium term punter getting chopped up as global sentiment changes, and with calls for double dip reason and global recover it’s any ones game. The smart money is on range trading. The local markets will continue to be dominated by offshore events. Australia is once again the darling of the markets, as it’s had some firm data supporting further rates rises. Kiwi will continue to piggy back on the big cushion across the ditch, and we will be watching the CPI data closely here at home. Big week for the States data wise, and this will set the tone for further medium term moves What we will do Trade the 6800/7150 range Look for further sentiment change
THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 12-Jul AU Home Loans - MAY Investment Lending - MAY Value of Loans MoM - MAY UK GDP (QoQ) - 1Q F GDP (YoY) - 1Q F Current Account (BP) - 1Q Index of Services (3mth/3mth) - APR
TUESDAY 13-Jul NZ Food Prices (MoM) - JUN UK RICS House Price Balance - JUN AU NAB Business Conditions - JUN NAB Business Confidence - JUN JN Industrial Production (MoM) - MAY F Industrial Production YOY% - MAY F Capacity Utilization (MoM) - MAY F Consumer Confidence - JUN GE Wholesale Price Index (MoM) - JUN Wholesale price Index (YoY) - JUN UK CPI (MoM) - JUN CPI (YoY) - JUN Core CPI YOY - JUN DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) - MAY EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - JUL GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - JUL Zew Survey (Current Situation) - JUL
WEDNESDAY 14-Jul US Trade Balance - MAY Monthly Budget Statement - JUN NZ REINZ House Sales YoY% - JUN REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% - JUN Retail Sales (MoM) - MAY Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) - MAY UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence - JUN AU Westpac Consumer Confidence - JUL DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM - JUL NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings - JUN JN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting - JUL UK Claimant Count Rate - JUN Jobless Claims Change - JUN Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY - MAY EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) - JUN Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) - JUN F Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) - JUN Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) - MAY Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) - MAY
THURSDAY 15-Jul US Advance Retail Sales - JUN Retail Sales Less Autos - JUN Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - JUN Business Inventories - MAY Minutes of FOMC Meeting - JUL NZ Business NZ PMI - JUN AU Consumer Inflation Expectation - JUL New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM - JUN CH Real GDP YoY - 2Q Producer Price Index (YoY) - JUN Purchasing Price Index (YoY) - JUN Consumer Price Index (YoY) - JUN Retail Sales (YoY) - JUN Industrial Production (YoY) - JUN JN BOJ Target Rate - JUL Machine Tool Orders (YoY) - JUN F EC ECB Publishes July Monthly Report - JUL UK BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal - 1Q
FRIDAY 16-Jul US Producer Price Index (MoM) - JUN PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - JUN Producer Price Index (YoY) - JUN PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - JUN Initial Jobless Claims - 10 Jul Continuing Claims - 3 Jul Empire Manufacturing - JUL Industrial Production - JUN Capacity Utilization - JUN Philadelphia Fed. - JUL NZ CPI (QoQ) - 2Q CPI (YoY) - 2Q JN Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) - JUN Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) - JUN EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance - MAY Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa - MAY
SATURDAY 17-Jul US Consumer Price Index (MoM) - JUN CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) - JUN Consumer Price Index (YoY) - JUN CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) - JUN Consumer Price Index NSA - JUN Net Long-term TIC Flows - MAY Total Net TIC Flows - MAY U. of Michigan Confidence - JUL P |
