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MONDAY 28TH JUNE 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: .6993/7155 AUD/USD: .8594/8836 NZD/AUD: . 8053/8195
Last week Even though the ranges were pretty small the volatility inside of those was high. With the Greek problems surfacing again and again, and further talk of it spreading to the usual culprits, the idea of a two tier Euro has once again become talk of the town. However, most markets were reasonably occupied with the world cup and that’s the reason we haven’t seen any major breaks over the week as traders were too busy watching TV than their screens. Here at home, the GDP was strong, but the retail sales and housing data were weak. This points to strong exports but the belief in the economy here at home just isn’t coming through. What we did Sat on hands like most, with no trend in sight, very small trades
This week More of the same from the Euro zone I’m afraid, let’s see how far the Greeks can tear down the Euro this week. The good old current account deficits of the old world have started popping into the heads of the rating agencies. How can the old world afford them they ask? Like the US and Europe mainly. If we see a commodity recover out of the recession, it just might be tipped over again by the dirt of current account deficits, as it was in the Asian crisis. It has to be said, it feels like the world is hanging in, but only just to the current recovery. It really is fickle out there. Here at home we expect the Kiwi to be caught between the risk on, risk off, theme out of Europe and the asset markets. What we will do Trade the wider range that we saw last week
The Week Ahead MONDAY 28 JUNE 2010 NZ Jun NBNZ Business Confidence 48.2% US May Personal Spending May Personal Income Jun Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May Chicago Fed National Activity Index Fedspeak – – – Warsh. Jpn May Retail Sales Eur May Money Supply M3
Tue 29 Jun NZ May Building Consents s.a. US Apr S&P/CaseShiller Composite– Jun Consumer Confidence, CB Index Jpn May Industrial Production May Unemployment Rate May Household Spending Eur Jun Economic Confidence Jun Business Climate Index UK May Net Consumer Credit May Net Mortgage Lending Jun GfK Consumer Confidence Can May Industrial Product Prices
Wed 30 Jun Aus May Private Credit US Jun NAPM-Milwaukee 65 Jun Chicago PMI Jun ADP Employment chg Fedspeak – – – Evans, Duke, Lockhart. Jpn Jun Nomura PMI 54.7 May Labour Earnings May Housing Starts May Construction Orders Eur Jun CPI Ger Jun Unemployment chg Presidential Elections UK Q1 GDP Revision Q1 Business Investment Q1 Current Account Jun House Prices Can Apr GDP May House Prices
Thu 1 Jul NZ Jun ANZ Commodity Price Index Aus May Retail Sales May Dwelling Approvals . Jun AiG PMI 56.3 US Jun ISM Manufacturing May Construction Spending May Pending Home Sales Jun Total Vehicle Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Jpn Q2 Tankan Lrg Manuf Conditions Q2 Tankan Lrg Non–Manuf Conditions Eur Jun PMI Factory UK Jun House Prices Jun Factory PMI
Fri 2 Jul US Jun Non-Farm Payrolls Jun Private Payrolls chg Jun Unemployment Rate a fall. May Factory Orders Eur May PPI UK Jun PMI Construction |
