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MONDAY 8TH MARCH 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 6848/7001 AUD/USD: . 8932/9089 NZD/AUD: . 7624/7822 Last week Generally a range bound session last week, with the Euro, NZD and AUD heading lower. First up, however, some strong data out of the States on Friday night (nonfarm payrolls) lead to a resurgent Dow and risk was put back on the table. This saw Kiwi, AUD and Euro return to the weeks highs and start this week off on a positive note. The NZD/AUD cross finally broke lower and this level (7730) should now be major resistance on any rally, as the divergent economies are directly reflected in the yield difference. What we did Stayed shot NZD/AUD Stayed short NZD on this latest rally, added to it and will stop if Kiwi breaches 7030 This week All eyes here at home with the RBNZ OCR on Thursday. He will sit on his hands again, as rates stay unchanged. With the tax changes coming up shortly this well help take the sting out of a bull run in property and thus keep inflation low. NZD/AUD once again looks set to test lower with no reason fundamentally for anyone to be buying Kiwi over Aussie. Globally the world is happy to have risk on again, as the US looks set to make a mild come back with most data staring show that the consumer is in a better place than they have been for some time, and of course, employment opportunities are growing. This week Sell NZD/AUD on rallies Trade ranges on other currencies Buy USD/JPY on dips
THE WEEK AHEAD
Monday 8-Mar NZ QVNZ House Prices Manufacturing Activity – qoq – Q4
Tuesday 9-Mar NZ Electronic Card Transactions – mom - Feb AU NAB Business Confidence – Feb ANZ Job Ads – mom – Feb UK Trade Balance – Jan
Wednesday10-Mar US IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism - Mar NZ Terms of Trade – qoq – Q4 AU RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speaks Westpac Consumer Confidence – mom - Mar Home Loans Investment Lending GE Trade Balance – Jan UK Industrial Production – mom – Jan
Thursday 11-Mar US Monthly Budget Statement - Feb NZ RBNZ OCR Review BNZ Business NZ PMI – Feb AU Employment – mom – Feb Unemployment Rate – Feb
Friday 12-Mar US Trade Balance – Jan Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7th) NZ REINZ House Sales – yoy – Jan REINZ House Prices – mom – Feb Retail Sales – mom – Jan
Saturday 13-Mar EC Eurozone Industrial Production – mom – Jan US Advance Retail Sales – mom – Feb Univ. Michigan Confidence – Mar Business Inventories – mom – Jan
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