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TUESDAY 16TH FEBRUARY 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 6808/7022 AUD/USD: . 8613/8918 NZD/AUD: . 7822/7949
Last week Australia continued to over shadow NZ last week. We printed appalling unemployment data, in fact the worst since 1993, and across the ditch they went from strength to strength with an outstanding number. Unemployment is now 7.3 vs 5.3, no wonder the NZD/AUD continues to fall and looks set for more. Along with the poor data and the recovery momentum here at home waning, the European woes continue as Greece and a number of other nations continue to run into problems. Also we saw further tightening of conditions in China, so the flight to the big buck quickened throughout the week. What we did Had a good run, being short NZD against USD and AUD. This week Buying USD on dips will be the theme for this week. With the above issues continuing to weigh on the respective currencies and with Chinese New Year upon us, the market should keep going along the same lines. It looks like the high yielders will not be tightening too soon as the market has predicted and already we have seen rates fall off, this is not a good scenario for buying Kiwi, AUD and Euro. What we will do Sell NZD/AUD on any rally Buy USD/JPY on dips Sell Euro on rallies
THE WEEK AHEAD Monday 15-Feb NZ BNZ Business NZ PSI UK Rightmove House Prices – mom - Feb JN GDP – qoq – Q4 Industrial Production – Dec F – mom Tuesday 16-Feb NZ PPI Inputs – qoq –Q4 PPI Outputs – qoq –Q4 AU NAB Business Confidence UK CPI – mom - Jan Core CPI – yoy - Jan GE ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment – Feb ZEW Survey – Current Situation – Feb Wednesday 17-Feb US Empire Manufacturing - Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows - Dec Fed’s Hoening speaks at Budget Forum in Washington NAHB Housing Market Index - Feb ABC Consumer Confidence – Feb 15 AU Westpac Leading Index – mom - Dec JN BOJ Monetary Policy meeting EC Eurozone Trade Balance – s.adj. – Dec Thursday 18-Feb US Building Permits - Jan Housing Starts - Jan Industrial Production – mom- Jan Minutes of FOMC Meeting NZ ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index – Feb US Fed’s Plosser speaks on Financial Crisis in Philadelphia Friday 19-Feb US Initial Jobless Claims – week to Feb 14 Continuing Claims – week to Feb 7 PPI – mom – Jan PPI ex Food & Energy – mom – Jan Philadelphia Fed - Feb AU RBA Governor to appear before House of Reps Committee GE Producer Prices – mom - Jan US Fed’s Bullard speaks to Economics Club in Memphis NZ Credit Card Spending – mom – Jan GE PMI Manufacturing - Feb PMI Services - Feb EC PMI Manufacturing - Feb PMI Services – Feb PMI Composite - Feb US Consumer Price Index - Jan CPI ex Food and Energy – mom - Jan
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