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MONDAY 8TH FEBRUARY 2010
Ranges NZD/USD: . 6108/7148 AUD/USD: . 8581/8923 NZD/AUD: .7895/8051 Last week Big moves last week, as Kiwi AUD and Euro continued to get a slamming. Risk trades are definitely on the back burner after last week’s events. The RBA decided not to raise rates, NZ unemployment blew out to the highest since 1993 and Chinas tightening of the banking sector are the culprits. Oh and don’t forget, all the problems in Europe with Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland having major issues regarding their sovereign debt ratings. Needless to say, the USD bounced significantly and the share markets copped it with both barrels. What we did Short Kiwi /USD and /AUD good result there Short Euro USD
This week We see little change, as the concerns over sovereign credit are unlikely to go away anytime soon. There are fears that these problems will be a precursor to more issues Europe wide. Locally this will keep the pressure on the Kiwi and AUD as ante rally will be sold into, as risk continues to be taken off the table. Any further break south will see model traders in, selling the currencies and of course the Yen crosses which have been hit hard. So, look to sell NZD and AUD on rallies and buy USD, it sure looks like the theme has changed. What we will do Sell NZD and NZD against AUD Sell Euro Be wary of the market getting carried away again
THE WEEK AHEAD MONDAY 8-Feb NZ QVNZ House Prices – yoy – Jan JN Current Account – Dec (P) Bank Lending – yoy – Jan M3 Money Supply – yoy – Jan
TUESDAY 9-Feb UK RICS House Price Diffusion Survey – Jan NZ Parliament Resumes – Speech from the Throne UK Trade Balance – Dec GE Current Account Balance – Dec CPI – mom – Jan (Final)
WEDNESDAY 10-Feb US Wholesale Inventories – mom – Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – Feb NZ Electronic Card Spending – mom – Jan AU Westpac Consumer Confidence – Feb JN Machine Orders – mom – Dec Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index – mom – Jan Housing Loans – yoy – Q4 AU Home Loans – mom – Dec Investment Lending – mom – Dec UK Industrial Production – mom – Dec Manufacturing Production – mom – Dec BOE Inflation Report – Q1
THURSDAY 11-Feb US Trade Balance – Dec Fed's Tarullo Testifies Before Senate Panel on Risk Fed's Plosser Speaks in Philadelphia on Financial Crisis Monthly Budget Statement – Jan NZ BNZ Business NZ PMI – Jan Food Prices – mom – Jan AU Employment – mom – Jan Unemployment Rate – Jan US Advance Retail Sales – mom – Jan Retail Sales less autos – mom – Jan Initial Jobless Claims – week ending Feb 7 US Continuing Claims – week ending Jan 31 Business Inventories – mom – Dec NZ REINZ House Sales REINZ House Prices – mom – Jan Retail Sales (nominal) – mom – Dec Retail Sales (volumes) – qoq – Dec JN Consumer Confidence – Jan EC Eurozone Industrial Production – mom – Dec Eurozone GDP – qoq – Dec (A)
FRIDAY 13-Feb US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence – Feb P
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