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MONDAY 18TH JANUARY 2010
Ranges since 22 Dec NZD/USD: .6982-7445
What occurred At the end of last month we saw the return risk aversion, as rating agencies were out and about giving out bad ratings, to countries and companies alike, a sort of reverse Christmas present if you like. This saw Kiwi, AUD and Euro dive steeply, and some unwinding of short USD positions as the Dollar rallied. In the New Year we have seen this trend slowly abide, with a flight back to the risk trades until of very recently, where poor economic data out of Europe has weighed heavily on all concerned.
From here Continuing concerns over Greece, Ireland and Spain have seen Euro sellers emerge on any rally. With no real solid data out of Europe, it looks set to grind lower against the Dollar and the crosses as time goes by. Australian data has been exceptionally strong since the start of the year with retail sales, employment and huge Chinese imports all suggesting the RBA has more work to do on February 2. We like being long AUD against Euro and GBP. Back here at home it’s not as clean a cut as it is across the ditch. Some average data releases prioir the end of year, but some good sentiment from varying sources so far the year. It looks set to piggy back the AUD but not lead it. So, it looks like the markets will be following the data out of the US to see if the recovery continues. Be watching the weaker European nations to see if their influence will continue to add pressure to the Euro. Kiwi (as always), buy the dips and sell rallies as the crosses get out of wack. What we will do Buy AUD/EURO/GBP on dips Buy UDS/JPY on dips Sell Euro USD on firm rallies
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 18-Jan JN Industrial Production-mom Industrial Production-yoy
TUESDAY 19-Jan UK CPI-mom CPI-yoy GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Jan ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - Jan EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) - Jan
WEDNESDAY 20-Jan US NAHB Housing Market Index NZ Food Prices Consumer Prices-qoq Consumer Prices-yoy AU Westpac Consumer Confidence-Jan NAB Business Confidence-4Q UK ILO Unemployment rate (3m to Nov) Bank of England Minutes
THURSDAY 21-Jan NZ Retail Sales - mom Retail Sales Ex-Auto - mom Business NZ PMI ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey EC PMI Manufacturing PMI Composite US Producer Price Index – Dec - PPI Ex Food & Energy – Dec - mom Producer Price Index – Dec - yoy PPI Ex Food & Energy – Dec - yoy Housing Starts - Dec
FRIDAY 22-Jan US Initial Jobless Claims – Jan 17 Leading Indicators - Dec Philadelphia Fed - Jan AU Export Price Index - qoq Import Price Index - qoq |
