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Tuesday 15th December 2009
Ranges
NZD/USD: . 7049/7312
AUD/USD: . 9022/9187
NZD/AUD: . 7798/7989
Last week
The short USD turn around dominated the markets last week.
With Kiwi, AUD and Euro falling sharply as the trade was
unwound. With some good data out of the States, and, of
course the Dubai affair, all attributing to a lower Kiwi
as the risk trades came a crashing. That was the first
part of the week.
Kiwi surged ahead on Thursday after the RBNZ signalled a
rise in interest rates could happen sooner next year,
rather than later, and the banks 90 day bill track showing
a tightening cycle beginning six months earlier. Along with
great employment data out of Aussie, the risk trades were
immediately put back on and we saw Kiwi and AUD close at
their highs for the week.
What we did
Got caught tinny short going into RBNZ and stopped out
instantly
Traded long Dollars and did ok
This week
With the continued good data out of the States, we are set
to see a see saw between a strengthening USD and a improving
global outlook. The outlook improves risk appetites, and
like a red bull, gives Kiwi wings. So expect to see Kiwi
caught between 72-73 cents. However, the Euro zone is not
looking that pretty, so we expect Euro to weigh heavily on
any major appreciation that we might see.
Obviously, this doesn’t bode well for those who are short
Kiwi/Euro or Kiwi/GBP, as these crosses look set to appreciate
further in the coming months.
The big data for the week is the US CPI which obviously will
be watched to see if further USD strengthening can be seen.
What we will do
Buy NZD/Euro/GBP on dips
Buy Dol/Yen on dips
Trade 78/81 cents in NZD/AUD as we think we have seen the
bottom in this
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 14TH
NZ REINZ Monthly House Price Index (Nov)
Non Resident Bond Holdings (Nov)
JN Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (4Q)
Tankan Non-Manufacturing (4Q)
Industrial Production (Oct F) - mom
Capacity Utilization (Oct F) - mom
UK Rightmove House Prices (Dec) - mom
EC Employment (3Q) - qoq
Industrial Production (Oct) - mom
TUESDAY 15TH
NZ MED Quarterly Energy Data
Government’s Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update
AU Dwelling Starts (3Q)
Reserve Bank's Board December Minutes
UK RICS House Price Balance (Nov)
CPI (Nov) - mom
RPI (Nov) - mom
DCLG UK House Prices (Oct) - yoy
GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (Dec)
ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (Dec)
EC Labour Costs (3Q) - yoy
ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) (Dec)
WEDNESDAY 16TH
US Producer Price Index (Nov) - mom
PPI Ex Food & Energy (Nov) - mom
Empire Manufacturing (Dec)
Net Long-term TIC Flows (Oct)
Total Net TIC Flows (Oct)
Industrial Production (Nov)
Capacity Utilization (Nov)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec)
AU Westpac Leading Index (Oct) - mom
DEWR Skilled Vacancies (Dec) - mom
Gross Domestic Product (3Q) - qoq
RBA Deputy Bank Governor Battellino speaks in Sydney
JN Tertiary Industry Index (Oct) - mom
Machine Tool Orders (Nov F) - yoy
GE PMI Manufacturing (Dec A)
PMI Services (Dec A)
EC PMI Manufacturing (Dec A)
PMI Services (Dec A)
CPI (Nov) - mom
UK Claimant Count Rate (Nov)
Jobless Claims Change (Nov)
Average Earnings inc bonus (Oct) – 3m/yoy
ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths) (Oct)
THURSDAY 17TH
US Consumer Price Index (Nov) - mom
CPI Ex Food & Energy (Nov) - mom
Current Account Balance (3Q)
Housing Starts (Nov)
Building Permits (Nov)
FOMC Rate Decision
AU HIA New Home Sales (Nov) - mom
RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Nov)
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Dec)
JN Leading Index CI (Oct F)
Coincident Index CI (Oct F)
UK Retail Sales (Nov) - mom
BoE Releases Quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey
EC Construction Output (Oct) - mom
FRIDAY 18TH
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Dec-13)
Continuing Claims (w/e Dec-6)
Leading Indicators (Nov)
Philadelphia Fed (Dec)
Fed’s Bernanke Confirmation Vote Held in Senate Banking Committee
NZ ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Dec)
JN BoJ Target Rate
GE Producer Prices (Nov) - mom
IFO - Business Climate (Dec)
IFO - Current Assessment (Dec)
IFO – Expectations (Dec)
EC Current Account s.a. (Oct)
Trade Balance s.a. (Oct)
UK Public Finances (PSNCR) (Nov)
M4 Money Supply (Nov P) - mom
BoE Releases Trends in Lending Report
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