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MONDAY 7TH DECEMBER 2009
Ranges
NZD/USD: .7119/7297
AUD/USD: .9104/9320
NZD/AUD: .7780/7888
Last week
It was dominated at the end of the week by the US nonfarm payroll data. The market was
caught short USD and long everything else, as the data printed a lot stronger than
forecast. This saw Kiwi and all the other usual suspects getting sold heavily on Friday
night.
Commodity prices here at home continue to grind higher, which is good news for the
countries dairy farmers. However, with a US that is starting to eek its way north, we
might have seen a top in Kiwi land.
The RBA raised rates again as expected, however the statement following was slightly
more dovish than expected.
What we did
Stayed short Kiwi and still holding this
Short NZD/AUD after RBA raised rates again as expected
This week
This week, here at home will be dominated by the RBNZ statement ON THURSDAY. We
expect to see no change what so ever in both the cash rate and the statement. In fact,
the best thing Mr Bollard could do, is to walk up to the podium and say ”no change”
then walk back to his office.
Globally USD sentiment will be the key. Now that we have seen some good news from
their labour market, it will be key to see if the market will start to unwind more of its
USD shorts.
What we will do
Sell NZD on rallies against USD and AUD
Sell NZD/GBP. Goldmans put it out as one of their top 10 trade recommendations and
we agree.
Buy USD/JPY on dips
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY 7TH DEC
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AU
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AiG Perf of Construction Index (Nov)
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ANZ Job Advertisements (Nov) - mom
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EC
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ECB's Trichet speaks in Paris
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ECB's Quaden Speaks at Belgian Finance Forum Conference
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TUESDAY 8TH
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GE
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Factory Orders (Oct) - mom
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EC
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ECB's Trichet speaks in Brussels
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US
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Bernanke Speaks to Economic Club of Washington Lunch
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Consumer Credit (Oct)
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New York Fed President Dudley Speaks at Columbia University
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NZ
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Economic Survey of Manufacturing (3Q) - qoq
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Value of Building Work Put in Place (3Q) - qoq
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-
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JN
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Adjusted Current Account Total (Oct)
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Money Supply-M3 (Nov) - yoy
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Leading Index CI (Oct P)
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Coincident Index CI (Oct P)
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Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Nov)
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Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Nov)
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AU
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NAB Business Conditions (Nov)
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NAB Business Confidence (Nov)
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Current Account Balance (3Q)
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RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Sydney
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UK
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Industrial Production (Oct) - mom
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WEDNESDAY 9TH
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GE
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Industrial Production (Oct) - mom
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Trade Balance (Oct)
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Consumer Price Index (Nov F) - mom
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Current Account (Oct)
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UK
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Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Nov)
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Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) (Oct)
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EC
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ECB's Stark Speaks in Bonn
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NZ
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Electronic Card Transactions (Nov) - mom
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AU
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Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)
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Home Loans (Oct)
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Trade Balance (Oct)
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Investment Lending (Oct)
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JN
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Gross Domestic Product (3Q F) - qoq
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Machine Tool Orders (Nov P) - yoy
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THURSDAY 10TH
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EC
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ECB's Weber Speaks in Frankfurt
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EC
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ECB Publishes Dec. Monthly Report
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ECB Council Member Liikanen Speaks in Helsinki
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UK
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Pre-Budget Report Published
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US
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Wholesale Inventories (Oct)
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NZ
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RBNZ Official Cash Rate Announcement
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Terms of Trade Index (3Q) - qoq
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JN
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Machine Orders (Nov P) - yoy
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Domestic CGPI (Nov) - mom
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AU
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Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec)
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Employment Change (Nov)
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Unemployment Rate (Nov)
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Full Time Employment Change (Nov)
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Part Time Employment Change (Nov)
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Participation Rate (Nov)
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RBA Assistant Governor Speaks in Sydney
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FRIDAY 11TH
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UK
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BoE Interest Rate Announcement
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BoE Asset Purchase Target
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PPI Input (Nov) - mom
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PPI Output (Nov) - mom
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PPI Output Core (Nov) - mom
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US
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Trade Balance (Oct)
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Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Dec-6)
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Continuing Claims (w/e Nov-29)
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Fed Governor Duke Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference
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Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)
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NZ
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Food Prices (Nov) - mom
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JN
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Consumer Confidence (Nov)
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